Everyone’s Talking About Fuel Across the Highlands.
Should We Be Talking About Food, Fertiliser, Semi- Conductors and Helium ?
Most of the coverage around the current Iran crisis has been focussed, predictably, on rising fuel prices. It’s the visible part of the story. You see it at the petrol station, you hear it in conversations, and you feel it in your monthly bills. But focusing only on fuel is like watching the tide come in without noticing the storm behind it. What’s unfolding here is not simply an energy issue. It’s a potential disruption to multiple systems at once, energy, fertiliser, food, and even technology: all of which are tightly linked. Once you follow those links properly, the picture becomes far more serious.
This isn’t just something happening “over there”. It has direct implications globally and very real, very local consequences for places like the Highlands, where distance, reliance on imports, and limited infrastructure make us especially exposed.
The Strait of Hormuz: A Global Chokepoint
At the centre of all this is the Strait of Hormuz a narrow passageway through which a huge proportion of the world’s critical supplies must pass.
We’re talking about:
- Oil and liquefied natural gas
- Fertiliser inputs
- Helium a key industrial gas
It’s only about 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. That means it doesn’t take much: conflict, blockades, or even credible threats to disrupt what flows through it.
So much of the global system depends on that flow, any disruption doesn’t stay local. It ripples outward very quickly.
Fuel Prices: The First Symptom, Not the Main Problem
Yes, oil matters. A lot.
A significant portion of global oil supply moves through this region, so when tensions rise, prices follow. That’s what we’re seeing now.
But oil is not just about driving. It underpins:
- Transport of goods and food
- Agricultural machinery
- Manufacturing
- Heating and electricity in many cases
- When oil supply drops, everything becomes more expensive and harder to move.
More importantly, energy and economic output are closely linked. Historically, when energy availability drops, so does global GDP. A 5–10% fall in energy supply could translate into a similar contraction in economic activity.
That alone would be serious, However the deeper issue lies in what energy enables: particularly food production.
Fertiliser: The Critical Link Most People Are Missing
Modern agriculture depends on fertiliser. Without it, crop yields fall sharply.
The key process behind this is the Haber–Bosch process, which takes nitrogen from the air and combines it with hydrogen (usually derived from natural gas) to produce ammonia. That ammonia is then used to make fertilisers.
This is what allows us to feed billions of people.
Here’s the problem:
- Around 20–30% of global fertiliser inputs come from the Gulf region
- These supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz
- Fertiliser production itself depends on energy (gas and oil)
- So if that region is disrupted, fertiliser supply falls; either because raw materials can’t be shipped, or because energy shortages limit production.
From Fertiliser to Food: A Direct Chain
This is where the situation becomes critical.
The relationship is simple: Less fertiliser → lower crop yields → less food
Estimates discussed suggest that losing around 20% of fertiliser supply could lead to roughly a 20% drop in global food production.
There’s an even more sobering point: Without modern fertiliser, the Earth could only sustain around 1–2 billion people.
We currently have more than eight billion. That gap is enormous. It’s the difference between stability and global famine.
India: A Warning Sign of How Fast This Could Unfold
One of the most striking points raised is how quickly this could begin to bite.
Countries like India, which rely heavily on fertiliser imports, could begin to experience severe shortages within 2–3 months if supply is disrupted.
That’s not a long-term, hypothetical scenario. That’s immediate.
If fertiliser supply stops:
- Crops cannot be planted or maintained effectively
- Yields drop sharply
- Food supply tightens very quickly
India alone represents a huge portion of the global population. If it faces shortages, the knock-on effects are global: in markets, supply chains, and humanitarian terms.
And importantly, we’ve never experienced a truly global famine before. Localised famines, yes but not a systemic, worldwide shortfall.
This Isn’t Just About Cost It’s About Availability
- At first, shortages show up as rising prices.
- Food becomes more expensive. Energy costs rise. People feel the squeeze.
- But if supply drops far enough, something more serious happens.
- t stops being about affordability and becomes about availability.
- At that point, the question is no longer “Can you afford it?” but “Is it there at all?”
That’s when systems begin to break down.
Energy and Food: Inseparable Systems
It’s important to understand that food production doesn’t sit separately from energy it depends on it at every stage:
- Fuel for tractors and harvesters
- Energy for fertiliser production
- Transport from farms to shops
- Refrigeration and storage
- If energy supply falls, food production and distribution are both affected.
Even if crops are grown, they still need to be moved often long distances and that brings this much closer to home.
The Highlands: Why This Hits Hard Here
In the Highlands, we are particularly exposed to these kinds of disruptions.
1. Heavy Reliance on Imported Food
We do not produce enough food locally to sustain the population. A significant proportion of what we eat is transported in from elsewhere in the UK or from overseas.
If national or global supply chains tighten, we feel it quickly.
2. Long Distances and Transport Dependence
Getting to shops, work, and services often involves significant travel.
Fuel costs matter more here than in urban areas
Supply deliveries travel longer distances
Any disruption to logistics hits rural areas first and hardest
If fuel becomes scarce, not just expensive, but scarce and moving goods into remote areas becomes a serious challenge.
3. Limited Redundancy in Local Supply
Urban centres often have multiple supply routes and higher stock turnover.
Rural communities don’t have that luxury.
Shops carry less stock. Deliveries are less frequent. If there’s disruption, shelves can empty faster and take longer to refill.
4. Economic Vulnerability
Many households are already balancing rising costs.
If food and fuel prices rise together or if availability becomes uncertain there is very little buffer.
Helium and the Semiconductor Shortage: The Overlooked Layer
There’s another part of this story that doesn’t get much attention: helium.
Around 30% of global helium supply comes from the same region and travels through the same chokepoint.
Helium isn’t just for balloons it’s essential for semiconductor manufacturing.
Semiconductors are in:
- Phones
- Computers
- Vehicles
- Medical equipment
- Infrastructure systems
If helium supply is disrupted:
- Semiconductor production drops or stops
- Technology supply chains are hit
- Repairs and replacements for critical systems become harder
Now, to be clear, this is not as immediately life-threatening as food shortages. But it adds another layer of strain to an already fragile system.
When multiple systems fail together energy, food, technology the impact compounds.
A Fragile Global System
What this situation exposes is how concentrated and interconnected everything has become.
A single region affects:
- Energy supply
- Fertiliser production
- Food output
- Industrial systems
That concentration creates efficiency but also vulnerability and when something disrupts that system, there are no quick fixes.
You can’t rebuild infrastructure overnight. You can’t instantly replace fertiliser production. You can’t easily reroute global supply chains at this scale.
What Happens Next?
If the situation stabilises quickly, the system absorbs the shock.
If it doesn’t, if disruption continues then we begin to see:
- Falling energy supply
- Reduced fertiliser production
- Lower food output
- Rising prices
- Increasing scarcity
- All those effects build on each other.
Final Thoughts: Looking Beyond the Headlines
It’s completely understandable that the focus is on fuel prices. That’s what people see first.
But it’s only the surface.
The real issue is the chain beneath it:
Energy → Fertiliser → Food → Stability
Break that chain, and the consequences are global.
In the Highlands, distance, reliance on imports, and limited infrastructure mean we are acutely exposed. That’s not about panic it’s about awareness once you understand how these systems connect you realise that what’s happening isn’t just another geopolitical story. It’s a reminder of how much we rely on systems that, under pressure, are far less secure than we might like to believe.
